There has been little news from the quoted recruiters in the past two weeks, so with it being December at last I thought I’d have a look at how the stocks have performed this year and what is likely to move the stock market over the holiday season and beyond.



Since the start of the year Hays’ share price has increased by 43%, Michael Page has increased 57% and SThree by 78%. This is despite markets remaining incredibly tough. All will benefit from the significant cost savings put through this year and earnings should rebound strongly once the market recovers.



However, looking to 2010, investors are still concerned that the UK economy is facing considerable headwinds in the form of reduced public spending and higher taxation. The international recruiters, therefore, look best placed as it now seems likely that Europe will recover more quickly than the UK. Hays in particular could benefit from its strong presence in Australia, which, as an economy, has recovered quickly on the back of its growing trade with China.

Back to Christmas in the UK and all eyes are on the consumer. Almost all of the large high-street retailers and supermarkets will be providing Christmas trading period updates in January. The hope is that we will spend our way out of recession and that the sooner consumer confidence returns, the sooner the job market will recover.

Almost all of the large highstreet retailers will be providing trading updates in January. The hope is that we will spend our way out of recession and that the sooner consumer confidence returns, the sooner the job market will recover

Ironically, while it was arguably consumer overspending that got the market into the recent troubles, the economy is now relying on an uptick in consumer spending to get us out of recession. Again, slightly contrary to common sense, the market is concerned that individuals are saving too much, as was born out by recent data that showed that consumers are paying down personal debt much more quickly than forecast.



If you believe that the recovery in the UK may take longer than expected, then Penna may have another good year. If you are more bullish, then Robert Walters could see a sharp rebound in profits from its key London office. The January consumer figures should give us an indicator but 2010 could be a difficult year to predict.